This text is part of the Weather Preparedness & Resilience Toolbox developed by the YOUROPE Event Safety (YES) Group within YOUROPE’s 3F project (Future-Fit Festivals). It is aimed at everyone involved in planning, building, and operating open-air events. It helps festivals and other outdoor events become truly weather-ready by offering both practical and research-based resources as well as background information on weather and climate. Learn how to design safer and more weather-resilient outdoor events.
Decision Making and Communication
Decision making and communication are the decisive control layers of weather-related risk management at outdoor festivals. While hazard awareness, monitoring, and planning define what could happen, decision making and communication determine what actually happens in real time.
Despite their central importance, decision making and communication are frequently underestimated. Many event concepts assume that “decisions will be made if necessary” without defining:
- who decides,
- based on which indicators and thresholds,
- with what authority,
- and how decisions are communicated and enforced.
Typical failure symptoms include:
- delayed intervention despite clear warning signals,
- contradictory instructions from different actors,
- visible hesitation in show control or on stage,
- loss of audience trust due to unclear or changing messages.
From a legal and professional perspective, decision making and communication are not optional skills but direct expressions of duty of care. Authorities and courts increasingly assess whether weather-related decisions were timely, proportionate, documented, and effectively communicated. In this sense, decision making and communication form the ethical, legal, and operational core of professional event safety management.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Weather-related decisions at festivals are rarely based on certainty. Forecasts are probabilistic, observations incomplete, and crowd behaviour dynamic. Professional practice therefore often relies on risk-based judgement, not on perfect information.
Key principles include:
- Time sensitivity: The value of a decision decreases rapidly with delay.
- Irreversibility: Some actions (e.g. stage shutdowns, evacuations) are difficult or impossible to undo.
- Consequence dominance: Low-probability, high-impact scenarios require priority over frequent but minor disruptions.
- Precautionary logic: Early, proportionate action is usually safer than waiting for confirmation.
Waiting for certainty is itself a decision!
Impact-Based Weather Thinking
Impact-based thinking shifts focus from “What is the weather?” to
“What will this weather do to this specific event, at this site, at this time?”
Identical meteorological conditions can have very different implications depending on:
- site layout and topography,
- type and density of temporary structures,
- crowd distribution and mobility,
- operational phase (build-up, live show, egress).
Decision logic must therefore be site-specific, not generic.
Decision Authority and Accountability
A fundamental principle is the clear separation between:
- advisory roles (meteorology, safety, technical experts),
- and decision authority (designated event leadership function).
Ambiguity at this interface is one of the most common and dangerous failure mechanisms in weather-related incidents.
Communication as Risk Control
Communication is not merely information transfer. It actively shapes behaviour, compliance, and system stability. Communication decisions influence:
- crowd movement and density,
- staff confidence and reaction speed,
- escalation or de-escalation of stress and uncertainty.
Effective communication must therefore be:
- clear in intent,
- consistent across channels,
- credible and trusted,
- explicitly action-oriented.
Decision quality degrades under fatigue, noise, stress, and cognitive overload – especially at multi-day events. Communication and decision procedures must therefore be:
- simple,
- standardised,
- repeatable,
- executable under degraded conditions.
Plans that only work with fresh, perfectly trained staff are unrealistic.
Cause–Effect Chains
A common escalation pathway includes:
- Early indicators (forecast uncertainty, first gusts, rainfall onset).
- Interpretation gap (signals recognised but not prioritised).
- Decision delay due to uncertainty, negotiation, or optimism.
- Operational inertia (preparatory actions postponed).
- Abrupt escalation requiring reactive measures.
- Communication overload with inconsistent messages.
- Loss of control as staff and audiences act independently.
Decision-Making Framework for Weather at Festivals
Every event must designate one clear decision authority for weather-related actions. This role must:
- be known to all stakeholders,
- have mandate to pause, stop, or modify the event,
- be continuously available during operations.
Ambiguous authority leads directly to delayed and inconsistent action.
Good practice requires:
- early information sharing,
- aligned terminology,
- transparent decision logic.
Surprise notifications erode trust and slow response.
Documentation
All significant weather-related decisions should be logged:
- time,
- trigger,
- information basis,
- decision taken,
- responsible role.
Documentation supports operational clarity, learning, and legal defensibility.
Key Lessons
For professional festival management, the key lessons are:
- Decision making is an active safety measure, not an administrative formality.
- Uncertainty is normal; hesitation is optional.
- Authority, thresholds, and communication pathways must be defined before the event.
- Communication shapes behaviour and risk; it is a control tool.
- Early, proportionate decisions preserve options; late decisions remove them.
- Professional credibility is built through clarity, consistency, and accountability.