This text is part of the Weather Preparedness & Resilience Toolbox developed by the YOUROPE Event Safety (YES) Group within YOUROPE’s 3F project (Future-Fit Festivals). It is aimed at everyone involved in planning, building, and operating open-air events. It helps festivals and other outdoor events become truly weather-ready by offering both practical and research-based resources as well as background information on weather and climate. Learn how to design safer and more weather-resilient outdoor events.
Monitoring & early warning in a nutshell
1. Commit to One Meteorological Reference
Do not work with multiple meteorological services in parallel for operational decision-making. Select one primary service whose data and interpretation form the basis for decisions.
Why this matters:
Using several sources rarely improves accuracy, but it almost always increases uncertainty. Diverging forecasts trigger comparison loops (“but this one says something else”), delay decisions, and invite unproductive discussions—especially under time pressure.
Use additional sources only for background awareness or post-event review, not for live operational decisions.
2. Prefer On-Site Meteorological Support
If feasible, work with a meteorological service provider who is physically present on site for the duration of the event.
Why this matters:
On-site experts can:
- Interpret data with direct knowledge of local topography, structures, and microclimates
- Observe developing conditions that sensors or models may lag behind
- Communicate in real time, using operational language rather than abstract forecasts
A meteorologist who knows where the main stage, evacuation routes, wind corridors, and vulnerable structures are will always outperform a remote forecast alone.
3. Replace Vague Monitoring with Clear Responsibility
Never say: “We are monitoring the weather.”
Instead, define who is monitoring, what they are monitoring, and what happens next.
Why this matters:
“Monitoring” without ownership creates blind spots. In critical moments, unclear responsibility leads to delayed escalation, missed thresholds, or assumptions that “someone else is watching it.”
Always assign:
- A named responsible person
- A defined deputy or backup
- Clear handover rules for breaks, shift changes, or fatigue
4. Separate Data Collection from Decision Authority
The person collecting or interpreting weather data does not automatically need to be the decision-maker -but the interface must be clear.
Why this matters:
Confusion between analysis and authority leads to hesitation (“Should I already escalate?”) or premature decisions.
Define in advance:
- Who provides assessments
- Who makes decisions
- How escalation thresholds are communicated
5. Define Decision Thresholds Before the Event
Do not wait for live conditions to define what is “too much wind” or “too close lightning.”
Why this matters:
Thresholds defined under stress are inconsistent and emotionally influenced.
Predefine weather-related trigger values (e.g. wind gusts, lightning distance, heat index) and link them to specific actions, not vague intentions.
6. Treat Weather as a Continuous Process, Not an Alert
Weather risk is not binary (“safe” vs. “dangerous”). It evolves.
Why this matters:
Focusing only on warnings can cause you to miss early indicators and narrowing decision windows.
Structure monitoring into phases:
- Anticipation (hours before)
- Observation (trend development)
- Action window (decision point)
- Recovery / reassessment
7. Align Weather Information with Operational Language
Meteorological terminology alone is not enough.
Why this matters:
Operational teams need to understand impact, not just phenomena.
Translate weather data into questions like:
- What does this mean for structures?
- What does this mean for crowd behaviour?
- What does this mean for evacuation time and routes?
8. Document Decisions, Not Just Data
It is not enough to record forecasts and measurements.
Why this matters:
In post-event reviews or legal contexts, the key question is not “What was the weather?” but “Why was this decision taken at that moment?”
Log:
- The assessment
- The decision
- The responsible person
- The time and data basis
9. Plan for Human Factors
Fatigue, tunnel vision, and confirmation bias affect weather decisions like any other.
Why this matters:
Long events increase the risk of degraded situational awareness.
Rotate monitoring roles, encourage second opinions within the agreed framework, and explicitly allow escalation without fear of “false alarms.”
10. Remember: Speed Beats Perfection
In live operations, the best decision is often the one taken early enough, not the one that is theoretically perfect.
Why this matters:
Waiting for certainty in weather situations usually means waiting too long.
Design your weather monitoring and decision system to support timely, defensible decisions, not perfect forecasts.