The Risk Management Circle in the Context of Events: 3 Risk Assessment
Once potential risks have been identified in event planning, the next crucial step is risk assessment. This phase involves evaluating the likelihood and impact of each identified risk, prioritizing them based on their potential effect on the event. Accurate risk assessment allows event planners to allocate resources effectively and develop appropriate mitigation strategies. The definition of protection goals and the determination of threshold risks represent the calibration of the risk assessment
Understanding Risk Assessment
Risk assessment is the process of determining the significance of identified risks. It involves estimating the probability of each risk occurring and evaluating the potential impact on the event. The goal is to prioritize risks so that the most significant ones can be addressed first.
Key Components of Risk Assessment
- Likelihood Assessment: Determine the probability of each identified risk occurring. This can be done qualitatively (e.g., high, medium, low) or quantitatively (e.g., percentage chance of occurrence).
- Impact Analysis: Evaluate the potential consequences of each risk. This involves considering the severity of the impact on various aspects of the event, such as safety, finances, reputation, and logistics.
- Risk Matrix: Create a risk matrix that plots the likelihood of each risk against its impact. This visual tool helps in prioritizing risks based on their significance. Typically, risks that are both highly likely and have a high impact are given the highest priority.
Methods for Risk Assessment
- Qualitative Assessment: Involves descriptive analysis where risks are categorized based on subjective criteria. For example, risks might be classified as high, medium, or low in terms of both likelihood and impact.
- Quantitative Assessment Uses numerical data and statistical methods to calculate the probability and potential impact of risks. This approach is more precise but requires more data and expertise.
- Scenario Analysis: Explore different scenarios to understand the potential impact of risks under various conditions. This helps in understanding the range of possible outcomes and preparing for multiple contingencies.
Figure 1: Example of a qualitative risk assessment: audience behaviour. Photo: Marc Nowak // RhEINKULTUR
Tools for Risk Assessment
- Risk Assessment Matrix: A grid that plots risks based on their likelihood and impact, providing a clear visual representation of risk priorities.
- Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA): A systematic approach for evaluating processes to identify where and how they might fail and assessing the relative impact of different failures.
- Probability and Impact Matrix: Similar to the risk matrix, this tool specifically focuses on quantifying the likelihood and impact, often used in quantitative assessments.
Example of a Risk Assessment Matrix. Source, online: 03.02.2024
The assessed risk is compared it to the threshold risk. The yellow area of the matrix represents the threshold risk in which the ALARP principle is applied. ALARP stands for “as low as reasonably practical”. If the risk is above the threshold risk, it must be reduced, regardless of how much it costs or how much effort is involved. If this reduction is not possible, the activity must be terminated, i.e. the major event may have to be cancelled. If the risk is in the yellow zone, reduction measures can be introduced if the costs of the measures do not exceed their benefits.
The aim should be to reduce as many risks as possible so that they are in the green zone. Risk assessment is a vital component of the Risk Management Circle, enabling event planners to focus their efforts on the most significant risks. By systematically evaluating the likelihood and impact of each risk and utilizing tools like risk matrices and scenario analysis, event organizers can prioritize threats and allocate resources effectively. This structured approach not only minimizes potential disruptions but also enhances the overall success and safety of the event.
